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Friday, June 3, 2022Culture

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It is, of course, impossible to predict with any assurance what the Red Sox will and will not do with their roster decisions, but there is no law against guessing.

Dick
Flavin

Baseball rosters are, by their very nature, in a state of constant flux. Careers are brief by normal standards. Veteran players move on and newer players move in to take their place. It has always been so but, in the age of free agency, the process has sped up dramatically. In the case of the Red Sox, for instance, the roster next season could be almost unrecognizable from this year's edition.
Xander Bogaerts has an opt-out on his contract with the Sox and, if he exercises it, he could be gone by next year or before. He is in high demand, not yet 30 years old, and has shown real leadership skills in addition to undeniable talent. If the Red Sox don't pay what he's asking, someone else surely will.
J.D. Martinez, currently leading the majors in hitting, is a free agent at the end of the season. His home runs are down, but no one, absolutely no one, is complaining. He's hitting the ball with authority and consistency. He'll be 35 by the time this season ends, but with the National League adopting the designated-hitter rule, the market for him has expanded. Some team should be willing to pay a hefty increase in salary for a couple of years. Would the Red Sox?
Rafael Devers will not be eligible for free agency for another year, but the Sox traded Mookie Betts a year before he was eligible while they could still get something of value for him. Will they do the same in the case of Devers, who will be in line for a $300 million dollar contract?

Kike Hernandez, who has emerged as an elite center fielder in the last two seasons, is also a free agent this year. His batting average is down but he is a trusted clutch hitter. He might well decide to test the market.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. gets paid $12 million a year to patrol right field, where he does not get to show his defensive skills as often as when he was in center. He's a free agent this year, and the Red Sox must decide if his inconsistent bat is worth that kind of money.
Christian Vazquez has become a fixture at catcher, but he is also a free agent. Catchers are always in high demand, and the Red Sox must decide if they want him to be the catcher of the future.
In addition to their position players, starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and James Paxton, plus relievers Matt Strahm and Hirokazu Sawamura and back-up catcher Kevin Plawecki are all free agents.
I'm not saying that they'll all be gone a year from now, but some of them will. Fenway Sports Group, the Red Sox parent company, has taken on a different profile than it had in years gone by. It bought the Pittsburgh Penguins in the National Hockey League this year and is said to be looking at investments in both the NFL and the NBA. There are also the Liverpool soccer team, RFK racing, and various other interests. The Red Sox are just a division within the company now and no longer its only reason for existing. There are other investors who have a say in how money is spent. It's no longer just John Henry and Tom Werner, although they retain ultimate control. It's a different world than it used to be.
It is, of course, impossible to predict with any assurance what the Red Sox will and will not do with their roster decisions, but there is no law against guessing. Herewith are a few guesses, some of them educated, others not very.
It appears that they have already decided that Xander Bogaerts will be too rich for their blood. They signed Trevor Story, a natural shortstop, to a six year, $140 million contract. Story is playing second base for now, but should Bogaerts move on, Story could easily slide over to short and Christian Arroyo, a reserve who has proven he can handle second, moved in to cover the keystone sack. It could happen as early as the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Stay tuned.
Because of his age, J.D. Martinez will not be in the market for any long-term deals, but he could be looking in the neighborhood of $50 million for two years. Some teams will probably pay that. Will the Red Sox? My guess is no.
Rafael Devers will be looking for a deal of $300 million or so over the next decade. The Red Sox were not willing to go there with Mookie Betts. Has anything happened to change their mind? I look for them to trade Devers over the off season, just as they did with Mookie.
My guess is also that they won't hold onto both Hernandez and Bradley, Jr. Hernandez is both cheaper and younger than Jackie, so he could be the odd man out.
Christian Vazquez is not the greatest catcher in baseball, but he is serviceable and comes at a reasonable price. His current deal is for $7 million a year. My guess is that the Sox will re-sign him for a few more years.
Some of the pitchers will stay, others will move on. Rich Hill, who will be 43 years old, may well retire. In any case, the pitching staff, both starters and relievers, will have a different look next season.
We'll keep rooting for the Red Sox, though, because it is the laundry that we love. We root for whoever it is that's wearing a "B" on their caps and old English lettering on their uniform shirt fronts. We root for the Red Sox no matter who they are.
Some of my guesses might turn out to be accurate, others will be way off base. But I will predict this with total confidence: you'll need a program to tell you who all those new players are.

- Dick Flavin is a New York Times bestselling author; the Boston Red Sox "Poet Laureate" and The Pilot's recently minted Sports' columnist.